There are two real estate markets running simultaneously in Austin right now. They exist in the same city, in some cases on the same street. But they operate by entirely different rules, attract entirely different buyers, and are producing entirely different results for the agents and investors working in them.
To get an honest read on both, we sat down with two of Austin’s most experienced agents. Wade Giles has been in the Austin market for over a decade, is active in development and investment, and has been on the RealtyHack Podcast more times than almost anyone. Austin Stowell, also at Compass, has been in the business since 2014, has built a reputation for deep market knowledge across central and west Austin, and is selectively growing his team heading into 2027.
The conversation was candid, wide-ranging, and grounded in what’s actually happening on the ground, not what the headlines say.
Table of Contents
Two Markets Are Running at the Same Time in Austin Right Now
The single most important thing to understand about Austin’s current market is that the broad narrative (slow sales, rate pressure, declining values) only tells part of the story. It describes one market accurately. It completely misses the other.
The first-time buyer market is brutal
For buyers relying on conventional financing at current rates, the math has fundamentally changed. Wade laid it out plainly: people in the sub-million dollar range are financing homes at 7% instead of 4.5%. That’s a 35% increase in payment on the same purchase price, in a market where labor and materials costs have also risen significantly.
“The sub-million dollar buyer is the problem. We live in an economic environment where people relying on the typical debt structure are now buying houses at 7% instead of four and a half. That changes the whole deal. You can make houses more affordable, but if you increase someone’s payment 35% just because of economic circumstances, that’s brutal.” — Wade Giles
Austin Stowell described a specific situation that illustrates the pressure. A client bought their first home, moved up during the market correction, and now holds their original property in a first-time buyer neighborhood. After multiple price reductions, the property is still sitting. The sellers are upside down from their purchase price five years ago. They ultimately leased it.
That outcome, a band-aid lease on a property that can’t sell, is increasingly common in the entry-level segment. It preserves the asset but doesn’t solve the underlying problem.
The luxury market is on another level entirely
The same week those conversations were happening, Austin described seeing four separate social media posts in a single day looking for buyers at $10 million or above. Wade noted that luxury isn’t just strong. It’s shocking.
“Luxury? I would say pretty strong. It’s incredible. It’s shocking. It’s insane. If I see one more buyer need up to $10 million, it’s kind of insane.” — Austin Stowell
Westlake is holding strong. Tarrytown is holding strong. The areas where high-net-worth buyers have been accumulating for years continue to perform, largely insulated from the rate environment because the buyers in that segment aren’t financing the same way.
For more on how Austin’s market is performing across price points, the Austin real estate market overview provides current data and context.
Why the bifurcation exists and what’s driving it
The split isn’t random. Wade traced it to a few converging forces:
- Austin has accumulated a significant base of high-net-worth residents who continue to trade up within the market
- Inbound migration from states with income taxes, particularly California and Washington, is accelerating. Wealth taxes and state income taxes are driving decisions at the top of the market
- The Silicon Hills tech ecosystem has been building for two decades. Companies and executives that couldn’t get funded in Austin 20 years ago and had to go to San Francisco are coming back
- A wave of corporate relocations is still working through the pipeline, with people who haven’t arrived yet set to hit the market in 2027 and beyond
“There’s a huge wave of people coming to Austin that haven’t even hit yet. And when builders started to slow down, there’s not a lot of new quality product available to absorb it.” — Austin Stowell
The bottom line: the forces pushing Austin’s luxury market higher are structural and long-term. The forces pressuring the entry-level market are rate-driven and temporary. Agents who understand which market they’re working in will navigate 2026 very differently than those treating it as a single condition.
Lessons From Surviving (and Nearly Not Surviving) the Downturn
Both Wade and Austin were candid about how difficult the last few years have been, and what they learned from watching colleagues get overextended while managing their own exposure.
How overextension took down people doing everything right
The conversation opened on a sobering note: mutual friends who were successful, growing, and doing real business got caught overextended when the market shifted. Not because they made obviously bad decisions, but because they scaled into a market that reversed faster than anyone anticipated.
Wade’s framing of risk management stuck: there’s being uncomfortable, then there’s smoke, then there’s the house on fire. Most agents, when things get hard, are somewhere in the uncomfortable zone. What happened to some people in 2023 and 2024 was genuinely the house on fire.
“My survival has been based on the fact that I’m pretty risk-averse. I didn’t get super rich in the runup, but I also didn’t completely lose my shorts.” — Wade Giles
The 15 listings in May 2022
Austin Stowell shared one of the sharpest market-read stories of the conversation. Going into summer 2022, he had 15 listings planned for release over three months. In May, before inflation headlines started dominating, he started noticing something: the lines in front of houses were getting shorter. The frenzy was fading.
He got on a Zoom with his brokerage and told them this wasn’t the seasonal summer slowdown. Everyone disagreed. He listed all 15 properties between mid-May and mid-June anyway, got every single one under contract and closed over asking.
His next closing wasn’t until November.
“I remember talking to my brokerage. I was like, ‘Guys, I don’t think this is the summer slowdown.’ Everyone said it’ll be fine. We listed all 15 and got them all closed over asking. I didn’t have another closing until November that year.” — Austin Stowell
That call saved his sellers from sitting on properties through the correction and saved his business from carrying a portfolio of stale listings through the worst of it. It came from paying close attention to on-the-ground signals instead of waiting for the data to confirm what was already happening.
What “stay alive till 25” actually delivered
The industry mantra during the correction was to hold on until 2025, when conditions were expected to normalize. The reality: 2025 was the worst year Austin Stowell had in his career. The adage was off by a year. 2026 is where things started to feel meaningfully better.
Spyglass Realty’s brokerage-wide numbers confirmed the shift: sales up 29% year over year. Both Wade and Austin described 2026 as shaping up to be their best year on record, a jarring thing to say at a moment when 30-year fixed rates are still near 7%.
Multiple income streams as the real hedge
One of the clear takeaways from the downturn years was the value of not being entirely dependent on transaction volume. Ryan Rodenbeck noted the same lesson from running Spyglass: the brokerage launched Spyglass Insurance, deepened its mortgage and title relationships, and pushed agents to convert past clients into long-term sphere relationships that generate income outside of active transactions.
“The last six and a half years have taught us: easy come, easy go, and big tree fall hard. Don’t get too extended. Multiple streams of income, sock it away, put it aside.” — Ryan Rodenbeck
Why Austin’s Luxury Market Is Defying the National Narrative
The national story on real estate in 2026 is still largely about rates, affordability, and stalled first-time buyer activity. Austin’s luxury market is writing a different story entirely.
Who’s buying at $10 million and above
The buyers at the top of Austin’s market aren’t making decisions based on mortgage rates. They’re trading out of other assets, moving equity from stocks or other real estate into Austin property, or relocating from states where the tax environment has become untenable.
Washington state, California, and other high-tax markets are pushing wealthy residents toward no-income-tax states. Texas, and Austin specifically, keeps landing at the top of that list. The quality of life, the infrastructure, the tech ecosystem, and the relative affordability compared to coastal markets all contribute.
The quality problem in the middle of the market
Austin Stowell identified a hangover from the boom years that’s still working through the system: a significant amount of B-minus product that got built and sold at A-plus prices during the run-up. That inventory is still sitting, being traded, leased, or resold at discounts.
“We’re still working through inventory of people who could get away building B-minus product and selling it for an A-plus price. A lot of that is still sitting. Meanwhile, the ultra high end — that takes time, planning, and risk to deliver. But those that have the fortitude to build a $10 million spec in Rollingwood or a $14 million spec in Westlake? Those people are being rewarded.” — Austin Stowell
The market is sorting itself. Quality at the top is performing. Mediocre product in the middle is struggling. The agents and developers who can identify and deliver genuinely excellent product are finding strong demand. The ones still trying to move average inventory at above-average prices are grinding.
Real Estate Investing in Austin and Beyond
Both Wade and Austin are active investors alongside their brokerage businesses. Their current thinking reflects the same risk-awareness that shaped how they navigated the downturn. For more on building an investment-oriented real estate business, explore RealtyHack’s resources on real estate investing strategy.
Wade’s Zilker duplexes and the long game
Wade holds four duplexes in Zilker that he’s never intended to keep as duplexes forever. The plan has always been to eventually redevelop them. But he’s been patient about timing, pulling back on more speculative projects as risk became riskier over the last few years.
He raised a practical question about the area: the commercial environment on the east side of the neighborhood needs to change before residential values in that specific pocket will move the way he expects. When boutique retail starts replacing check-cashing operations, the buyers follow. That transition is coming, but it’s on a long lead time.
Lockhart as an emerging development opportunity
Wade’s next development move is focused on Lockhart, about 30 miles southeast of Austin. He holds a larger property near downtown Lockhart with a plan to split the lot and build three vacation homes for sale.
The thesis is straightforward: Lockhart has been quietly building its identity as a destination. Texas Monthly now holds its annual barbecue festival there. The city has several Michelin-recognized barbecue spots. First Friday events on the downtown square draw consistent crowds. And prices are still affordable relative to Austin.
“So many people are moving to Lockhart. The barbecue is a draw on its own. As a city, they’ve decided to reclaim the barbecue capital of Texas identity. And the prices are still affordable.” — Wade Giles
For developers willing to go slightly outside Austin’s core, markets like Lockhart offer land costs and price points that simply don’t exist inside the city anymore.
Austin’s West Lake home: what experienced agents see that buyers miss
Austin Stowell’s own most recent purchase illustrates the gap between how agents evaluate property and how most buyers do. He found a West Lake home through a client showing. The client passed because the finishes weren’t new enough. Austin saw exceptional bones, a floor plan that couldn’t be replicated, grandfathered well access for irrigation, and quality construction from a builder he respected.
He bought it. He moved in three days before his daughter was born.
“The client didn’t want it because it wasn’t shiny and new. For me, I’m like: these bones are amazing, this floor plan can’t be recreated. I can bring all the finishes up whenever I want. But a lot of the intangibles — those are what you can’t add later.” — Austin Stowell
It’s a useful reminder for agents working with buyers: the things that make a home genuinely valuable over time are rarely the things that photograph best.
Building the Right Size Team
Both agents are intentional about how they’re building their businesses going into 2027. Neither wants a large team. Both have thought carefully about why.
Austin’s theory: 10 is the inflection point
Austin Stowell laid out a clear framework for team sizing. His view: once you get past 10 people total, front of house and back of house, you face a decision that most team leaders avoid making explicitly. Either you scale significantly and step back from production, or you cut back and stay close to the work.
“If you get over 10, you have to make a decision: is your priority to be a top producing agent or to be a team leader? Because it’s hard to be both.” — Austin Stowell
He’s building toward seven to ten people, structured more like a small family than a production machine. Everyone has a clear role, feels supported, and operates with enough autonomy to be effective. Understanding the tradeoffs between running a team versus staying solo is one of the most important decisions an agent makes as their business grows.
Focus over coverage
Austin’s geographic philosophy matches his team philosophy. He doesn’t try to cover all of Austin. He focuses on the areas he knows deeply and does those areas exceptionally well. Trying to be everything to everyone in a market as large and varied as Austin dilutes the expertise that makes a strong agent valuable.
Wade operates with similar discipline. His development and investment activity is concentrated in areas where he has genuine conviction (Zilker, specific parts of east Austin, and now Lockhart) rather than spreading across the metro chasing every opportunity.
What two longtime Austin agents want you to know about this market
Austin real estate in 2026 is genuinely complex. The broad narrative doesn’t capture what’s actually happening, and the agents who are thriving are the ones who understand the nuance.
Here’s what Wade Giles and Austin Stowell want agents and investors to take away:
- Stop treating Austin as one market. The entry-level and luxury segments are operating by completely different rules right now. Your strategy, your pitch, and your expectations need to match the specific market you’re working in.
- Watch the on-the-ground signals, not the headlines. Austin called the 2022 market shift before anyone else in his office, not from data, but from paying attention to what was happening at showings. That kind of awareness is still the edge.
- Quality product wins at every price point. B-minus inventory is still struggling. Exceptional product at every level is moving. If you’re advising sellers, that conversation about condition and presentation has never mattered more.
- The structural tailwinds for Austin are long-term. Migration, tech growth, and wealth accumulation are all pointing in one direction. The agents who are building now, even into a difficult rate environment, will be positioned for what comes next.
- Build a business you can sustain, not just one that performs in a boom. Multiple income streams, disciplined risk management, and team sizes that match your actual capacity are what carry you through the hard years.
Wade Giles and Austin Stowell are both agents at Compass in Austin, Texas. For more on building a resilient real estate business in any market condition, explore agent growth resources at RealtyHack and the Austin real estate market overview.
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